The best way to handicap a horse race and then make a profit from it is by determining each horse’s chances in the race and then assigning a point value that you can convert to dollars and sense. For instance, if you find that one runner has 20 points in its favor and another has 10, then if your system is good, that horse with 20 points should be twice as likely as the other one to win, right? Now the next trick is to look at the odds and see where the value is.
In the above example, if the 20 point horse is at 3-1 and the other one at 2-1, the obvious choice is the 20 pointer. That is if you want the one who will show the best return, but the best return still doesn’t mean you will make a profit. You can only make a profit on your bets if the horses you bet on win enough to cover the cost of your bets and then some.
How in the world do you ever get to the point with your horse racing handicapping where you can tell if a horse is a good value? Here is the system I recommend. Get a good horse racing system that rates the horse or, if you are comfortable with rating them yourself, assign points for each significant factor. We’ll stick with the top four horses in the race because the winner is out of them about four out of five times.
Start with Speed, Class, Pace, Connections (jockey-trainer) and rate each one from the best in the race, the top horse, to the worst. Look at each factor separately and give 4 or 5 points for the best in each category and then one point less for the next best one, etc. Then add all their points together so each horse in the race gets a score. Now write the odds that each horse goes off at and then record the finish.
Continue to do this until you’ve looked at enough races to understand how your point system relates to the fair odds a horse should be going to post with. I can’t easily establish what that is because I don’t know how you rate each of the factors and determine the horse’s position. For instance, for the speed handicapping, you might add the last three speed figures at the distance while another person might just look at the last two races.
Therefore, there may be variations in the methods used by each person. The important thing isn’t that variation it is only that you can keep records and note the fair odds using your own method. That is the whole key to making a profit betting on horses. No matter how you rate them, you have to then know what fair odds may be and the only way to do that is to practice and see for yourself.